Opinion - The Houthis held, Trump folded: Is the US retreating from Yemen?
There's something rather jarring — though not entirely unfamiliar — about a U.S. president lauding the bravery of a force his military has just spent weeks trying to pulverize. But such is the diplomatic theatre of Donald Trump, who earlier this monthpraised Yemen's Houthi fightersfor their "great capacity to withstand punishment" even as he announced an unexpected ceasefire agreement with the group. A pact brokered through Omani mediation, the deal appears on its face to pause the dramatic escalation of U.S. military strikes and Houthi maritime assaults in the Red Sea. The big question, however, is whether this ceasefire is anything more than a tactical timeout in a war that now radiates well beyond Yemen's borders. For nearly a decade, the Houthis have not just survived but entrenched themselves in Yemen's northern highlands, fending off a combined Saudi-Emirati blitzkrieg backed — militarily and politically — by Washington. In this latest chapter, it was Operation Rough Rider,a costly American campaigninitiated in mid-March, that aimed to dislodge or at least deter the Iran-backed movement from targeting international shipping and American naval assets. The result?Seven downed U.S. drones, two lost fighter jets,over $1 billionsunk into the sand — and no discernible strategic gain. So, Trump pulled the plug. Not with the grace of strategic recalibration, but with a bluntness that makes his transactional worldview painfully clear. The Houthis, he declared, had earned a chance. Translation: They withstood the barrage; we've run out of options. But this so-called ceasefire is already a study in contradiction. For starters, it notably excludes Israel — a fact that has not only rattled Tel Aviv but exposed a fissure in the traditional U.S.-Israel axis. The Houthis, emboldened by what they frame as a David-versus-Goliath triumph, have vowed to continue their missile and drone campaigns against Israeli targets in "solidarity with Palestine." Days before the ceasefire, Houthi rocketsreached the outskirts of Ben Gurion Airport. Israel's response —striking Sanaa International Airport— did little to dull the group's resolve. From the Israeli vantage point, Trump's maneuver reeks of betrayal. There was no consultation, no forewarning. In essence, when American interests collide with those of its allies, the latter are dispensable. This should alarm not just Israel but the Arab states as well. Ahead of Trump's recent Gulf tour — which included stops in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar — the Houthis issued a pointed warning: beware of trusting America. Citing Washington's historical pattern of abandoning its allies, the message was couched in revolutionary rhetoric but steeped in hard-earned realism. AsMohammed Ali al-Houthi postedon X: "America, which abandoned the Shah, will abandon Israel, its clients, and its allies." It's a message that carries particular resonance in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, both of which have staked considerable resources — and regional credibility — on curtailing Houthi influence. The Emirates, despite their long-standing hostility towards the Houthis, were reportedly reluctant to support Washington's escalation and now find themselves managing an uneasy diplomatic recalibration. Qatar, ever the pragmatist, has welcomed the ceasefire, but its faith in a durable peace seems tentative at best. And then there's Iran, whose role in shaping this ceasefire remains underexamined. While Tehran has long been the Houthis' primary patron,reports now indicatethat Iran may have encouraged the group to negotiate rather than escalate further. If true, this suggests a broader strategic calculus: Iran, currently juggling nuclear talks and regional power plays, may have seen value in reducing tensions — at least temporarily. This raises a critical question: Did Tehran greenlight this ceasefire as part of a larger deal-making effort with Washington, or was it simply watching from the sidelines? What remains undeniable is that Iran benefits from keeping the Houthis active, particularly in pressuring Israel and Western-linked maritime trade routes. More broadly, what this ceasefire signals is not so much peace as exhaustion. Trump, ever the salesman of "America First," appears to have recognized that the returns on military investment in Yemen are nil. The U.S. campaign not only failed to neutralize the Houthis but may have actually amplified their stature — both regionally and symbolically. From their vantage point, forcing the world's most powerful military into a truce without conceding on Israel is nothing short of a propaganda coup. Yet, any celebration may be premature. This is not a ceasefire in the classical sense but a "tactical arrangement" — an ephemeral truce that could collapse at the first provocation. The Houthis have made clear they reserve the right to resume attacks at will. Indeed, they've already ramped up strikes against Israel, underlining that their pact with the U.S. is conditional and partial. So where does this leave the Middle East? In flux, as usual. Trump's decision may temporarily reduce American exposure in the Red Sea, but it has done little to advance a broader regional settlement. It may, in fact, deepen the fragmentation of U.S. alliances. The Arab states — already hedging between Washington and Beijing — now have more reason to doubt the reliability of their security patron. Israel, isolated and increasingly embattled, finds its deterrence credibility tested. And the Houthis? They emerge, at least for now, with a narrative of resistance that resonates far beyond Yemen's borders. In typical Trumpian fashion, the ceasefire is being sold as a triumph of strength. But beneath the bluster lies an uncomfortable truth: it is a retreat cloaked in bravado, a transactional pause in a conflict that is far from over. As with so many of Trump's foreign policy decisions, it is less about peace and more about optics — more about momentary relief than strategic resolution. Whether this arrangement holds is beside the point. Its very existence has shifted the terrain. And in the volatile calculus of Middle Eastern geopolitics, that alone is a development worth watching. Imran Khalid is a physician and has a master's degree in international relations. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. 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Opinion - The Houthis held, Trump folded: Is the US retreating from Yemen? There's something rather jarring — though not entirely unfami...
